FDBusiness.com

UK Food and Grocery Forecast to Grow by 15% by 2022

 Breaking News
  • Carlsberg Group Increases Ownership of Super Bock Group in Portugal The Carlsberg Group has acquired 28.5% of the shares in Viacerm which is the controlling shareholder of Super Bock Group, holding 56% of the shares. The other 44% of the shares in Super Bock Group are owned by Carlsberg. Super Bock Group is the market leader in Portugal, holding a market share of 47% with a [...]...
  • UK Restaurant Numbers Fall 2% in a Year The number of restaurants in Britain slipped by 2.0% over the year to September 2018, the new edition of the Market Growth Monitor from CGA and AlixPartners reveals – equivalent to more than 10 closures a week. The exclusive research shows that Britain had a total of 26,892 restaurants at September. The net fall of 539 [...]...
  • ABP’s Olleco on Shortlist For Davos Sustainability Award ABP Food Group’s renewable division, Olleco, has been shortlisted for a prestigious ‘Circular’ sustainability award for its development of a circular economy model with McDonald’s and Arla Foods in the UK. The awards are an initiative of the World Economic Forum and the Forum of Young Global Leaders and winners will be announced at the [...]...
  • Arla Foods Acquires Middle East and Africa Kraft Branded Cheese Business From Mondeléz International European dairy co-operative Arla Foods has reached an agreement with US-based international confectionery, food, and beverage company Mondeléz International to acquire its processed cheese business in the Middle East region, which is currently licensed under the Kraft brand. The acquisition also gives Arla full ownership of a state-of-the-art cheese production site in Bahrain, which provides [...]...
  • UK Grocery Market Growth Cools as Christmas Nears Despite retailers and shoppers getting into the festive spirit, the latest grocery market share figures from Kantar Worldpanel, for the 12 weeks to 2 December 2018, show the sector is now growing at 2.0% – its slowest rate since March 2017. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “Consumers are benefiting [...]...

UK Food and Grocery Forecast to Grow by 15% by 2022

UK Food and Grocery Forecast to Grow by 15% by 2022
June 07
12:05 2017

The UK food and grocery market is forecast to grow by 15% between now and 2022, giving it a value of £213 billion, according to the latest forecasts released today by grocery research organisation IGD. IGD is predicting growth across all the major grocery channels, with the discounters set to put in a particularly strong performance driven by ambitious store opening programmes, new store formats and range investment. By 2022, IGD is forecasting that one in every £7 will be spent at a discounter, up from one in every £9 now.

Other key findings from the new data include:

* Online is set to remain the fastest-growing channel, although perhaps not at the same pace as in previous years, as retailers also look to drive growth through their larger store and convenience formats

* Both discount and convenience have a more optimistic outlook than previous years and are forecast to grow the second and third fastest respectively of all the grocery channels

* There’s a more positive outlook than before for both supermarkets and hypermarkets to 2022, driven by a combination of inflation and investment in the big store experience for shoppers.

2017 value
(£bn)
2022 value
(£bn)
Change in value
%
2017-22
Hypermarkets 16.2 16.3 +1.0
Supermarkets 86.0 91.1 +5.9
Convenience 40.0 47.1 +17.7
Discounters* 20.1 30.1 +49.8
Online 10.4 16.0 +53.8
Other retailers** 11.8 12.2 +3.6
Total 184.5 212.9 +15.4

Channels may not exactly sum to market total because of numerical rounding in this table
*’Discounters’ includes all sales of Aldi and Lidl, and grocery-only sales of principal variety discounters, including Wilkinson
** ‘Other retailers’ includes specialist food and drink retailers, CTNs (confectionery, tobacco and news), food sales from mainly non-food retailers and street markets

Joanne Denney-Finch, IGD chief executive, says: “Our market growth figures to 2022 are higher than last year’s forecast, primarily driven by resurgent inflation following three years of sustained deflation across UK food and grocery. All channels are set to see growth, but we anticipate that encouraging shoppers to trade up or buy more will remain as competitive as it always has been – and potentially even more so, given the challenging economic outlook.

“There’s a revolution underway in food and grocery, in terms of what, how and where shoppers do their shopping. On average, shoppers say they use around 12 different stores every month – and in the future, we will have an even greater choice in what, where and how we buy our food. We’ll be more spontaneous but also better planned. We’ll be experimental, eager for new products and experiences. But we’ll also have perennial favourites, staples that we’ll buy on subscription. A quarter (24%) of British shoppers say in the next two to three years, it’s likely they will use an online subscription service to get their staples delivered.”

She adds: “So the pace of change will be rapid – and this will present huge challenges and opportunities for the industry.”

Driving the discounters

On the discounters, Joanne Denney-Finch says: “Discounters will contribute most to the cash growth in the market over the next five years, as they continue to open new stores and keep improving the shopper experience with new additions such as food-to-go, self-checkouts and larger stores. Four in five (79%) shoppers say they have visited a variety discounter for some of their grocery shopping in the last month, while two-thirds (62%) say they used a food discounter. And almost three-quarters (70%) of food discount shoppers say the quality of the products they buy from these stores has improved over the last couple of years.”

Online ‘natives’

Joanne Denney-Finch says: “Online will remain the fastest-growing channel over the next five years, but we have lowered our forecast for this part of the market from 2016, as many retailers have also started to refocus their efforts on the in-store experience, which will create additional competition for online.

“However, the size of the prize in online still remains huge. We expect to see the ‘digital native’ – those people who have grown up using technology in many aspects of their lives – help to sustain growth in the future, as they carry on shopping online for groceries and potentially convert others to do the same. In the last month, 40% of all British shoppers say they have bought some of their food and groceries online, but looking ahead to the next two to three years, that figure rises to 60% of shoppers who say it’s likely they will shop online.”

Going large

Looking at supermarkets and hypermarkets, Joanne Denney-Finch says: “Larger format stores may no longer be the biggest engines of growth in UK grocery, but nevertheless they remain the place where most people shop for food and groceries. Nearly every shopper in Britain (98%) claims to use a supermarket or a hypermarket for some of their grocery shopping every month, citing the convenience of having everything under one roof (84%) and wider choice (81%).

“Services that shoppers would like to see introduced at larger stores include non-food concessions, local independent food stores and an ‘everyday’ aisle near the front of the store, to enable a speedier shopping experience. We’re already seeing many larger stores move in this direction and expect this to continue over the next few years.”

At your convenience

Joanne Denney-Finch adds: “With nine out of 10 shoppers claiming to have visited a convenience store in the last month, it’s not hard to see why we believe this will remain the third-fastest growing grocery channel. Small stores have an enduring appeal and there are some clear opportunities for them to engage the younger generation, with one in five (19%) 18-25-year-olds mainly shopping in convenience stores, which is more than double the number of those aged 26 and over (7%). There’s also a huge opportunity for food-to-go, with more than eight in 10 (83%) c-store shoppers saying they could be encouraged to buy more food-to-go at their main convenience store.”

About Author

mike

mike

Related Articles



Food & Drink Business Conference & Exhibition 2016

Upcoming Events

  • June 18, 2019Multimodal 2019
AEC v1.0.4

find food jobs

The Magazine

F&D Business Preferred Suppliers

New Subscriber





Subscribe Here



Advertisements